The focus now turns to the 1Q.
The 4Q GDP is out. It rose by 2.6%. The NY Fed Nowcast last week pegged growth at a higher 3.94%. The estimate was one of the highest out there. They were off the mark (although there are 3 more revisions which may bring the actual and the forecasted levels closer).
As a result, the models from both the NY Fed (released once a week on Friday) and the Atlanta Fed (they saw 4Q at 3.4%) which is released more often, will be focused on the 1Q.
The NY Fed's model sees growth at 3.09% for the 1Q. That is about the level that they forecasted last week (was 3.07%).
Below is the chart of their estimates - so far - along with the model's inputs that impacted the change this week.
The biggest add for the week was from "merchant wholesalers"total inventories" (+0.06%) and manufactures inventories: durable goods (+0.04%).
The largest "subtracters" came from "new single-family houses sold" (-0.08%) and "real GDP" (-0.03%).
