ANZ with analysis on the New Zealand inflation data out earlier:

Comments (in summary):

  • These data captured a fair amount of lockdown-induced noise, dragging on quarterly inflation. That suggests Q3 will include a healthy dose of payback (but with underlying inflation continuing to decelerate). 
  • Looking through the noise, inflation and employment headwinds reinforce the need for further action from the RBNZ
  • " the underlying pulse is weak"
  • "The RBNZ has a momentous battle on its hands. Without further action or a significant change in the economic outlook, the risk of a persistent undershoot is likely to materialise."
ANZ with analysis on the New Zealand inflation data out earlier: