The latest New Zealand Treasury's Monthly Economic Indicators (for July) is out now
In summary:
- Mixed messages for growth as labour income continued to grow strongly but retail card spending weakened
- Risks to our growth forecasts are rising as the housing market cools, business confidence weakens, and international trade tensions rise
- Inflation remained subdued, but pressures appear to be gradually increasing
- Strong growth in the US, offset by a weaker outlook for the rest of the world
There is an RBNZ meeting this week, so this is worth checking out as the Treasury will be seeing things not too much differently to the central bank
The central concern around the globe right now is the rising trade war between the US and China (and US tensions re trade with others also). So, just expanding a little on the NZ comments on this:
- The international environment remains broadly stable.
- US growth was strong for the June quarter, however, the outlook for the rest of the world was slightly less favourable and the IMF downgraded growth projections for China, the Euro area, Japan and the UK.
- Trade tensions remain a key risk to the world economic outlook and have dominated headlines in July. Both China and the US have implemented tariffs on each other's imported goods.
- The impact on New Zealand is likely to be small at this stage.
Dunno … is this complacency or is the comfort level justified?