The NZDUSD has continued the trend move to the downside in the NY session and has now fallen below the 200 day MA (green line) and 38.2% retracement (of the move up from the Nov 2011 low) on the daily chart . The price has not closed below the 200 day MA since January 19th 2011. This is significant and should keep the sellers selling on corrective moves higher. The next key target from the daily chart will be the 0.7919 which is the midpoint of the move up from the November 25th low.
On the 5 minute chart the characteristics of a trend day are also evident.
- The price is remaining below the 100 bar MA
- The price is holding the trend line resistance
- The corrections found sellers on the intermediate leg of the trend at the 50% and 38.2% levels (see chart below).
Traders will look to use the 100 bar MA and trendline on the 5 minute chart, to define risk in the short term. If the price is able to stay below, it keeps the bears in charge. A move above, and the market may be ready to consolidate. Those levels currently come in at the 0.8020 area.