U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data is out Wednesday morning (US time)

Ahead of that we'll get a private inventory survey on Tuesday afternoon US time. Unfortunately that data is notoriously inaccurate.

S&P Global Platts (Futures Editor Geoffrey Craig) produce their own survey of what to expect:

  • Crude oil stocks expected to show a draw of 1.9 million barrels
  • Refinery utilization expected to decrease 0.2 percentage points
  • Gasoline stocks expected to drop 400,000 barrels
  • Distillate stocks expected to decline 500,000 barrels

Craig adds:

  • The inability for crude stocks to decline this summer by more than seasonal averages has inflated the surplus of inventories relative to historical levels.
  • Crude oil inventories have remained more than 30% above their five-year averages so far this summer, despite a long streak of weekly declines.
  • One reason for bloated stocks has been refinery utilization, which has been held back by relatively weak margins reflecting the large quantity of gasoline and distillates sitting in storage.

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(Note, not from Platts but from Genscape, they expect a 59K draw at Cushing)