WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the second and final part of
excerpts from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for October released
Tuesday:
Demand For OPEC Crude
Demand for OPEC crude for this year remained unchanged from the
previous assessment as the downward adjustment in world oil demand
offset the downward revision in non- OPEC supply. Within quarters, the
first two quarters experienced a positive revision of 0.1 mb/d, while 3Q
remained almost unchanged. However, 4Q saw a downward revision of 0.2
mb/d. At 29.9 mb/d, the demand for OPEC crude stood at 0.1 mb/d above
2010. The first and the second quarters of 2011 showed growth of 0.8
mb/d and 0.1 mb/d respectively, while the third quarter is estimated to
see a contraction of 0.4 mb/d. The fourth quarter is expected to remain
unchanged compared to the same period last year.
The demand for OPEC crude for 2012 is projected to average 29.9
mb/d, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d from the previously
reported, as the downward adjustment in global demand outpaced the
downward revision in non-OPEC supply. Within the quarters, the bulk of
the revision came from 3Q and 4Q which were revised down by 0.4 mb/d and
0.3 mb/d respectively, while 2Q saw an upward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d.
Required OPEC crude in 2012 is forecast to remain unchanged versus the
current year. Estimated growth in 1Q is expected at 0.1 mb/d, followed
by a contraction of 0.5 mb/d, while 3Q is forecast to remain unchanged.
The final quarter of the year is expected to increase by 0.4 mb/d
compared to the same period this year.
—
OPEC Crude Oil Production
Total OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.90 mb/d in September,
according to secondary sources, down by around 77 tb/d from the previous
month. OPEC crude oil production, not including Iraq, averaged 27.23
mb/d in September, a decline of 78 tb/d from the previous month. Crude
output of Nigeria and Saudi Arabia experienced a decline in September,
compared to the previous month, while crude production from Libya and
Angola showed increases.
—
Non-OPEC Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 0.36 mb/d in 2011 to
average 52.63 mb/d. This represents a downward revision of 0.16 mb/d
compared to the previous month, while anticipated growth experienced a
downward revision of 0.14 mb/d. Historical revisions to a few countries
supply in 2009 and 2010 affected the 2011 forecast. Additionally, many
revisions were introduced to the forecast in 2011, with the majority
affecting the second half. Adjustments to updated actual production data
in the first half have also affected the outlook, along with various
other changes in the second half. The largest revision was experienced
in Latin America, mainly on updated production data. All 2011 quarters
encountered downward revisions, as the various upward revisions seen in
some countries supply forecasts were insufficient to offset the
downward adjustments.
North America is now expected to have the highest growth among all
non-OPEC regions in 2011, followed by Latin America and the FSU, while
OECD Western Europe is projected to be the region with the biggest
decline. OECD supply is foreseen to grow in 2011, as growth in North
America is seen to more than offset the decline in Western Europe and
OECD Pacific. The US, Colombia, Russia, Canada, and Brazil are
anticipated to be the main drivers of growth in 2011, while UK, Norway,
Yemen, and Malaysia supply is seen to have the largest decline.
…
Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.83 mb/d in 2012 to
average 53.46 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 0.10 mb/d over
the previous month. The healthy growth is seen in 2012 as non-OPEC
output is projected to recover from the meager growth seen in 2011 that
is being encountered due to technical and other factors. Despite the
downward revision for total non-OPEC supply, growth experienced an
upward revision of 60 tb/d compared to the previous MOMR. Changes to the
2011 supply forecast were carried over to 2012, hence affecting the
total non-OPEC supply figure. Latin America remains the region with the
highest expected growth among all non-OPEC regions, supported by the
foreseen growth in Brazil and Colombia. North America is next in terms
of growth in 2012, with the projected supply increases from the US and
Canada seen to offset the decline expected in Mexico supply. OECD
Western Europe supply is expected to have the biggest decline in 2012
compared to other non- OPEC regions.
(2 of 2)
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MI$$$$,MI$OI$,M$$CR$,MAUDS$]