Just reading some analysis of the interbank order books which would seem to suggest that the USD is headed for more downside, in the bigger picture at least. This is a bit surprising given that CFTC data tells us that the market is already quite short of USD.
- USD/JPY is currently hemmed in between corporate orders around 76.00 and above 77.20 but the selling pressure is still seen outweighing the buying, despite the best efforts of the BOJ.
- EUR/USD is the ultimate ugly contest but Sovereign demand is still seen as the X-factor and they are persistent and consistent dip buyers as they diversify further out of dollars
- AUD/USD: Somewhat similar to the EUR/USD, in that Sovereigns are still buying dips but this pair is always susceptible to sharp risk-related sell-offs. China has been a noted buyer in the last week after the pair fell by 10%.
- USD/CHF: Another pair thought to be very heavily over-sold but order books suggest that there is plenty of interest to sell any rallies back above .8000.