The People’s Bank of China daily reference rate fix for the USD/CNY is due at 0115
Though it often hits a few moments later, within the following 2 - 3 minutes
Yesterday's mid-point was set at 6.4010
The PBOC's new procedure (as much as we can discern from their comments etc.) is based on the prior closing rate and overnight movement in the USD (as with any central bank, and perhaps more so for one as opaque as the PBOC, there is always uncertainty).
Here is yesterday's USD/CNY trade:
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- CNY closed a little stronger than the fix
- USD is little changed from yesterday
Given those, it seems the fix will be close to yesterday's closing price.
The risk is:
- A weak fix for the yuan would highlight that the PBOC is not done with yuan weakness, despite yesterday saying there wasn't further depreciation to come. It would weigh on the AUD and 'risk', though I don't think we'll see a repeat of the volatility we saw when the surprises were announce Tuesday and Wednesday.
- A stronger fix for the yuan (or little changed) would be a positive for 'risk' (AUD etc.), though I doubt it will be too impactful.
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I've seen analysis suggesting the rate will be set in the 6.3755-6.4267 range, with the danger being the stronger (for the yuan) side (i.e. toward the lower end of that range)