This is Nomura's preview of the CPI and PPI due from China at 0130 GMT 10 January 2018
First, though ICYMI ...
- CPI expected 1.9%, prior 1.7%
- PPI expected 4.8%, prior 5.8%
OK, Nomura (boldis mine):
- We expect a visible moderation in PPI inflation in December due to a high base from last year and weakening investment demand from the cooling property sector, although there are some upside risks to our forecast, as the price sub-indices of the official PMI rose in December.
- High-frequency food price data suggest CPI inflation should rebound slightly, likely partly due to below-normal temperatures in December.
And adding this, via TD:
- TD forecasts are more or less in line with the market. Tracking raw commodities, metals, food and oil prices suggests PPI remains elevated.
- We anticipate little change in CPI, but note that softer food prices (~30% of the basket) are capping the headline CPI print.