US nonfarm payroll data for December 2018 is due at 1330 GMT today, 4 January 2019
Earlier:
- US nonfarm payroll preview
- Goldman Sachs nonfarm payrolls preview
- December 2018 nonfarm payrolls preview: By the numbers
This now via TD:
- We expect 190k
- unemployment rate 3.7%
- wages will rise 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y
TD citing:
- payrolls to rebound ... following a larger-than-expected slide to 155k for November
- Regional surveys and the manufacturing ISM for December... suggest employment likely remained firm in the manufacturing sector
- scope for an upside surprise from employment in the services sector
- construction sector … was notably weak in November … the December ADP report suggests a strong rebound
Implications for FX:
- Very high hurdle - even on a positive surprise - to override what is a wave of negativity and uncertainty permeating through markets. This leaves an asymmetric bias for FX, with $JPY a fade on rallies (towards 108.70) and likely to remain heavy in the coming weeks as equity repatriation gathers momentum. CAD may also be a beneficiary as long as employment data sits on the positive