A couple of quick previews of the NFP due later today, US time
Via TD:
- We look for payrolls to mean-revert to 150k following a larger-than-expected jump in December
- unemployment rate should tick up to 4.0% largely reflecting furloughed government workers during the shutdown.
Barclays:
- nonfarm payrolls to have increased 160k in January … following some payback from December strength.
- We also assume some negative spillovers from the government shutdown on private sector contractors. As per the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), all federal employees affected by the shutdown, including those furloughed, will be counted as 'employed', as a legislation promising back-pay for the reference period as already been passed. Consequently, we do not expect a decline in federal payrolls, and look for all the change to show up in private sector payrolls.
- In the Household Survey, however, furloughed workers will be categorized as 'unemployed on temporary layoff', and therefore, we expect the unemployment rate to rise by a tenth, to 4.0%.
- we look for average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% m/m (3.2% y/y)
- expect average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.5