All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs on Tuesday, November 4
The House is overwhelmingly expected to remain in Republican control, with the majority likely to expand.
Watch the Senate. It is controlled by 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans and 2 independents but that’s likely to flip and that would put the Republicans in control of both bodies.
At betting site Paddy Power the odds of the Republicans taking control of the Senate are 1/8 while Democrats holding on are at 9/2. Other betting sites offer 1/5 to 1/16 so it’s widely expected the Republicans will take control.
At the New York Times, their statistical model sees a 70% chance of a Republican majority.
New York Times Senate model
Other models, like the Washington Post, see a 95% chance of Republicans taking control.
All models see a best-case scenario for Republicans taking 54 seats or maybe 55 (including independents).
But the race might not even be decided on Tuesday. Two races are very close — in Louisiana and Georgia. Third party candidates are siphoning votes and if no candidate gets more than 50% there will be run-off votes. Louisiana’s will be in Dec and Georgia not until January 6.
Independents are also intriguing, especially in Kansas where Greg Orman could dethrone longtime Republican Pat Roberts.
Even if one side wins, Senators could flip at any point so it’s unlikely either side will be able to hold an iron-clad majority.
What it will mean for markets
Republicans are seen as more business friendly so there could be a kick higher in the US dollar and stocks on Wednesday if they earn a clear majority. A surprise Democratic win would be the opposite.
But either way the moves are unlikely to last. The US government is hopelessly deadlocked and even if Republicans have both bodies, Obama still has a veto.
