Q4 2015 Canadian business outlook and loan officers survey 11 January 2016

  • Prior 16.00
  • Senior loan officers survey 5.6 vs 4.4 prior
  • Credit conditions tightened, mostly in the oil and gas sectors
  • Business sentiment has deteriorated as negative effects of lower commodity prices spread beyond resource sector
  • Investment and hiring intentions at lowest since 2009
  • Plans to cut staff more widespread
  • 10% of surveyed firms see CPI below 1%, most since 2009
  • A few firms reported moving production back to Canada
  • Firms see the US economy growing and supporting sales
  • Sales outlook is more robust for exporters

The survey is run by the BOC and last week Poloz tried to paint an upbeat picture by saying that firms will move away from the resource industry. The details of this survey suggest he's not going to be seeing that anytime soon. The biggest warning to that call comes from the investment and hiring intentions