RBA expected to cut rates by 25bps later today

There is still a bit of lingering doubt but the consensus opinion would seem to be that the RBA will cut rates by 25 bps today and leave the way open for another 25 bps cut in February or March of next year.

If AUD/USD is still trading near 1.0550 when the announcement is made, then I’d expect to see a test of support at 1.0500 on a 25bps cut. If there is no rate cut, then I’d expect to see a 100 pip rally as disappointed bears are forced to cover.