A rundown on scenarios for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today - announcement due at 0200GMT 7 August 2019
- Oh, and do be aware Governor Orr's press conference will follow an hour later.
Via Westpac, this in brief. The bank expects:
- 25 bp cut
- and stating that they might cut the OCR further, depending on the data
- Most likely … ease again in November
Scenarios:
Market neutral
- forecasts will show the OCR dropping to 1.1%
- a 70% chance we think
- NZD/USD +30 pips
Our dovish scenario
- a 25% chance
- cut, and an OCR forecast lowered to 1.0%
- NZD/USD would fall 1c
Our hawkish scenario
- a 5% chance
- cut and an OCR forecast indicating no further easing
- NZD/USD would rise 1.3c
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Earlier:
- RBNZ decision day. Here's how the huge drop in the unemployment rate will impact.
- RBNZ monetary policy decision for July 2019 due this week - Shadow Board recommends on hold
- RBNZ to cut Wed - BAML
- RBNZ monetary policy meeting Wednesday - preview
- RBNZ to cut today and keep dovish tone - UBS
- More rate cuts from the RBNZ now expected (ANZ)
- BNZ now sees the RBNZ cutting rates
