The RBNZ will likely keep rates unchanged at 5 PM. At the last meeting in June, they signalled that rates may stay at record lows to 2013 on EU concerns, fiscal consolidation and lower revenues from lower commodity prices. On the plus side was housing and the rebuilding from the devastating earthquake. There is likely little change in tone (with risk that the worries on EU and other global economy are higher). The following is the link for the last release. http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/MPSjun12.pdf

From a technical perspective, the pair sits is not to bullish not to bearish but just right as it heads into the decision.

On the upside, the 100 and 200 day MA at the 0.7962 area is a key level. Both MA’s are converged (see blue and green line in the chart above) at the level. This is also the 50% of the 2012 low to high trading range – increasing the levels importance even more. Should the price rally back above these levels on a more bullish assessment (or less bearish perhaps), I would expect stops being triggered with the next targets being the 0.8003, 0.8054 and 0.8074 (see hourly chart below).

On the downside off the daily chart the 0.7837-42 level will be a key level. This area was a floor in June and was near the low in trading yesterday. The price moved below this level in the early part of the trading day today, but was rejected. A move below on a more bearish or dovish assessment should solicit additional sell. The next targets below 0.7842 would be the low from today at 0.7807 and then 0.7764 which is the midpoint of the move up from the June 1 low

With the price near the middle of this support and resistance range (price is at 0.7906), I would expect traders to be happy to take the clues from those two levels. Also note the 100 and 200 hour MA (blue and green line in the hourly chart below). The price is below the MA lines currently but with the afternoon rally, is gettting closer. If the price moves above on a rally, look for traders to use these moving averages as stop loss levels. The 100 hour MA is at 0.7926 (blue line – see chart below). The 200 hour MA is at 79.50 (green line below).