— Retransmitting Story Published 00:23 ET Friday
— See Separate Table For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – Japan is expected to have posted a current account
surplus of Y975 billion in November, down 11.3% on year, the first y/y
drop in three months, according to the median forecast of economists
surveyed by Market News International.

The Ministry of Finance will release the data at 0850 JST on
Wednesday, Jan.12 (2350 GMT Tuesday).

Yusuke Ichikawa, economists at Mizuho Research Institute, said,
“The December current account surplus is expected to have dropped on the
year due mainly to a fall in the trade account surplus.”

Economists forecast that the trade surplus in the current account
data — FOB (free on board) for both exports and imports — will
come to Y288 billion in November this year, down from Y486 billion in
November 2009.

Japan’s trade surplus on a custom-cleared basis — FOB for exports
and CIF (cost, insurance and freight) for imports — stood at Y161.12
billion, down 55.9% y/y in November, as imports rose 14.2% on year,
surpassing exports’ growth of +9.1%.

The trade surplus in the current account data tends to be larger
than the surplus on a custom-cleared basis as imports in the latter
include various costs.

Exports of automobiles, which have led Japan’s exports for at least
15 years, rose only 2.8% y/y in November, gradually slowing from surges
higher than 100% marked in February, March and April in 2010.

The surplus in the income account, the largest component of the
current account balance, is expected to have stood at Y763 billion, up
only slightly from Y728 billion in November 2009, as interest and
dividend income from Japan’s overseas investment has been shrinking
recently due mainly to the strong yen exchange rate and low interest
rates in industrialized nations.

The yen appreciated by 10.1% on year in November, with the
dollar/yen exchange rate averaging at Y81.39, according to trade data
for the month released by the MOF.

skodama@marketnews.com
** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **

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