Reactions from analysts around the place on today's jobs report
ANZ calling for 2 25 bp cuts from the RBA in H1 of 2016
- Jobs growth focused in labour-intensive services sector is expected to wane
- Less support from housing activity and the lower currency
- Unemployment rate stuck above 6% would ultimately prove to be too uncomfortable for the RBA
JPMorgan
- 'Healthier skew' of labour market news" from other labour force indicators like the NAB conditions/confidence survey, ANZ job ads and more
- RBA has struck a more neutral tone in commentary in recent months
- Dovish forces on monetary policy are not coming from domestic economy drags, but from external (China) and financial (currency and mortgage spreads)
RBC Sydney:
- Says the market is treating the employment report "with a bit of skepticism"
- Thinks next year employment growth will slow down ... unemployment .. up to 6.5%
TD Securities
- Today's report won't influence the RBA to cut in November
- RBA will see decent annual employment growth of 2.0% on the year
- And unemployment rate unchanged at 6.2%
- "Everything else is just noise"
- expects 12,000 new jobs headline for next month's report
UBS
- Trend better than many forecast
- Mentions also the 2 per cent y/y jobs growth pace and steady unemployment rate
- Hours-worked growth rose to a 4-year high, consistent with the drop in job insecurity and jump in hiring intentions seen this week
- Better trends reflect rebalancing toward more labour intensive non-mining sectors
- Little here to suggest the economy needs a lower cash rate
- UBS does not discount the macro headwinds still in play
- mentions higher mortgage rates announced by Westpac ... "add some negative risk to the outlook"