- Recoveries from financial crisis’ are slow because the economy needs to work off excess credit
- Compared with the avg recovery 2012 GDP should be lowered 0.6-0.8 percentage points
- 2013 lower 05-0.7 pp
- 2014 should be almost normal
- Full report
“Any forecast that assumes the recovery from the Great Recession will resemble previous post-World War II recoveries runs the risk of overstating future economic growth, lending activity, interest rates, investment, and inflation,” wrote Oscar Jorda, a research adviser.
This would have been a great paper…two years ago. At this point, it’s conventional wisdom.