• HPI 12.1% vs 11.7% in August y/y
  • Ex-London and SE 9.1% vs 7.8% prior
  • England 12.5% vs 12.2% prior
  • Wales 5.8% vs 4.7% prior
  • Scotland 7.6% vs 6.7% prior
  • N Ireland 10.9% vs 9.6% prior

It’s still a mixed bag in the regions with London falling back a touch (18.8% vs 19.6% prior) and the South East (11.6% vs 12.3%). The East saw a gain of 13.4% from 11.6% prior.

Prices paid for first time buyers were up 13.3% from 12.9% in Aug

There’s a couple of possible scenarios happening here.

  1. Rising employment is broad across the country meaning more people can afford or feel secure enough to buy property
  2. The effect from the mortgage rules is hitting fairly hard meaning people are looking further afield to cheaper areas to buy

We’re likely to be seeing a mix of both and that should keep prices from dropping too far and certainly away from any sort of crash scenario. That may change if the jobs gains start going backwards into losses on the economic slowdown, meaning sentiment turns once again. As far as the BOE will be concerned they look to have kept the property bubble in check for now.