September 2018 US non-farm payrolls report highlights:

  • Prior was +201K (revised to 254K)
  • Estimates ranged from +125K to +245K
  • Private payrolls 121K vs +180K expected
  • Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.8% expected
  • Prior unemployment rate 3.9%
  • Participation rate 62.7% vs 62.7% prior
  • Two month net revision +87K

Wages data:

  • Average hourly earnings +0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expected
  • Prior average hourly earnings +0.4% (revised to +0.3%)
  • Average hourly earnings 2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected
  • Prior y/y avg hourly earnings 2.9%
  • Average weekly hours 34.5 vs 34.5 expected

Notes:

  • The BLS says it's possible Hurricane Florence may have affected some industries
  • Full release

The headline missed, which is a significant disappointment after strong ADP and ISM numbers but the unemployment rate fell to 48-year lows, which is certainly a cushion. So are the revisions, which essentially covered any shortfall.

On wages, there wasn't the pickup that many were hoping for. The prior month was revised lower.

Overall, there are no big surprises in the headline. It's a straightforward report and evidently it's good enough for the US dollar, which is modestly higher across the board.