- Members generally believed outlook softer than expected saw growing downside risks to growth, inflation
- None saw appreciable deflation risk
- Treasuries preferable to MBS for reinvestment unless market conditions change
- Members say employment, inflation falling short of desirable levels for longer than had been anticipated
- Economy operating further below where potential than previously thought
At first glance, it appears that the vast majority of the members are on the same page and that differences are just a matter of degree.
Here is the staff economic forecast the members are working off:
n the economic forecast prepared for the August FOMC meeting, the staff lowered its projection for the increase in real economic activity during the second half of 2010 but continued to anticipate a moderate strengthening of the expansion in 2011. The softer tone of incoming economic data suggested that the pace of the expansion would be slower over the near term than previously projected. Financial conditions, however, became somewhat more supportive of economic growth. Interest rates on Treasury securities, corporate bonds, and mortgages moved down further over the intermeeting period; the dollar reversed its April to June appreciation; and equity prices edged higher. Over the medium term, the recovery in economic activity was expected to receive support from accommodative monetary policy, further improvement in financial conditions, and greater household and business confidence. Over the forecast period, the increase in real GDP was projected to be sufficient to slowly reduce economic slack, although resource slack was still anticipated to remain quite elevated at the end of 2011. Overall inflation was projected to remain subdued over the next year and a half. The staff’s forecasts for headline and core inflation in 2010 were revised up slightly in response to the higher prices of oil and other commodities and the depreciation of the dollar. Even so, the wide margin of economic slack was projected to contribute to some slowing in core inflation in 2011, though the extent of that slowing would be tempered by stable inflation expectations.