Former US Treasury secretary and one of the two front-runners for the Federal Reserve chair position (losing out to Janet Yellen) Larry Summers has a piece up in the Financial Times.

He says:

a reasonable assessment of current conditions suggest that raising rates in the near future would be a serious error that would threaten all three of the Fed's major objectives - price stability, full employment and financial stability

On inflation (I am summarizing, his points are more nuanced, bit this is the gist)

  • more than half the components of the consumer price index have declined in the past six months - the first time this has happened in more than a decade
  • Market-based measures of expectations suggest that, over the next 10 years, inflation will be well under 2%
  • If the currencies of China and other emerging markets depreciate further, US inflation will be even more subdued

On employment Summers has little to say other than citing the marginal impacts of higher interest rates ... makes holding on to cash more attractive than investing it (in potentially job producing investment) ... & higher interest rates will also push up the USD, making US producers less competitive

On financial stability

  • Says there may have been a financial stability case for raising rates six or nine months ago, as low interest rates were encouraging investors to take more risks and businesses to borrow money and engage in financial engineering ... but that is now moot ... credit becoming more expensive, the outlook for the Chinese economy clouded at best, emerging markets submerging, the US stock market in a correction, widespread concerns about liquidity, and expected volatility having increased at a near-record rate, markets are themselves dampening any euphoria or overconfidence. The Fed does not have to do the job

As I said, there is more at the article, which is gated but can be read with a free registration: The Fed looks set to make a dangerous mistake

I've been a September hike guy (since my June call was crushed) ... but the odds are lengthening on September (i.e its looking less likely).