2017 GDP at 3.1% (up from 2.5% in June). Raised 2018 forecast to 2.5% from 2.3%

The Swedish governement sees higher 2017 and 2018 GDP growth vs their June forecasts.

  • Raises 2017 growth to 3.1% from 2.5% in June
  • Raised 2018 growth to 2.5% from 2.3% in June.

They also see a budget surplus of 1.0% of GDP in 2017 and 2018. The 2017 surplus is higher than the June forecast of 0.8%. The 2018 forecast remains unchanged.

On CPI:

  • Sees CPI rising to 1.6% in 2017 from 1.5% in June
  • In 2018 they see inflation rising slightly to 1.7%. That is unchanged from the June forecast.

Technically, looking at the 4 hour chart, the USDSEK has dipped below the July low of 8.0525 this week (traded to a low of 8.0482). It currently trades at 8.0578. The 8.0299 low from June 2015 and the 200 week MA at 8.0130 are key targets on a move lower.

Drilling to the 4-hour chart, the pair stalled near the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 8.11439 (see blue line in the chart below). The pair trades near a series of swing lows (see yellow area). Needless to say that area needs to be broken but is finding dip buyers at the moment.