Many traders ask me what I think about the US Unemployment report will be. My answer is “what the experts economists who estimate the number think”. I assume they have all the data for the models that spew out a number. They understand more about estimating than I do. With 300 million people in the US, a twist here, a turn here can make a number stronger or weaker by 50 or so thousand. That is what will move the market.

The problemwith this particular number is month is risk is typically caused by Market Risk, Event Risk and Liquidity Risk. All these risks will be at extreme levels. As a result, anything can happen. Market’s will be thin.

What we know from this weeks trading is the EURUSD has been the market’s main focus as yields on Spain and Portugal bonds increased on fresh worries and yield differentials widened. Adam and Jamie have been harping on the bank stock indices in Europe. There is an alarming piece on bank exposure. Spanish and Italian 10 year yields moving toward 6% is not something to ignore. Hence the movement down in the EURUSD has likely been quite justified. Some may say, “It is about time”.

We all know it takes two to tango when it comes to a currency pair, and so the US takes center stage with the non-farm payroll. The expectations call for 200-215 for NFP/Private Payrolls. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3%. The Underemployment rate came in at 14.9% last month – the lowest since January 2009. It peaked at 17.2. The wild card, which will likely never change, is if people reenter the labor force and the unemployment rate shoots back higher. We know Chairman Bernanke has been scratching his noggin wondering how 9.1% could go to 8.3% with the GDP performance over that time period.

If the number is stronger than expected, the USDJPY will react with the strength or weakness. Better than expected, the USDJPY goes higher. Weaker than expected the dollar goes lower. For the EURUSD a stronger number will likely be good for the EURUSD on risk on, but it could also go down on stronger US fundamentals vs EU expectations. So for me, I will be following the key technical clues.

The technical levels to watch.

EURUSD

On the topside:

  • 1.3100 – Downward Trend line on the hourly chart
  • 1.3147 = 100 day MA
  • 1.3166 = 38.2% of the move down this week

On the bottom,

  • 1.3041 = Neckline for Head and Shoulders
  • 1.3003 = Low from March/ bottom channel support on hourly chart below
  • 1.29736 = Low from February
  • 1.29525 = 61.8% of the 2012 range

USDJPY: The pair is trading at the weeks midpoint at the 82.42 level.

On the topside:

  • 82.50 = 200 hour MA
  • 82.984 = High from Tuesday
  • 83.297-83.37 = High for this week/high from last week
  • 84.00 = Underside of trend line from Feb 3rd low broken this week.

On the downside:

  • 82.32 = 100 hour MA
  • 81.82 is the low yesterday
  • 81.546 is the low for the week
  • 81.05 is the 38.2% of 2012 trading range
  • A move below this level opens up the downside for further selling toward the 80.578 and 80.09 (low from March and the 50% of the 2012 range)