NEW YORK (MNI) – The following are highlights from the Securities
Industry and Financial Markets Association’s report with forecasts of
government securities issuance and rates for the first quarter of 2011:
– SIFMA forecasts total net Treasury bill, note and bond issuance
to be $320.5 billion in the first quarter of 2011, approximately 11.7
percent below the net $362.9 billion issued (and over 17 percent below
the $387.0 billion previously forecast in SIFMA’s 4Q’10 issuance survey)
in the final quarter of 2010 (actuals include cash management balances).
– Survey respondents forecast that Treasury will issue $33 billion
of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) in the first quarter,
a 63 percent leap from the $20.3 billion issued in 4Q’10.
– Survey participants forecast a median $338 billion of Treasury
coupon securities in the first quarter, 10.8 percent below 4Q’10’s net
issuance of $378.9 billion. Gross coupon issuance is expected to total
approximately $501 billion, 2.8 percent below the $515.4 billion issued
in the prior quarter.
– Survey participants also forecast total gross coupon issuance by
the four largest Federal agencies to be $239.5 billion in the first
quarter, compared to $240.6 billion in 4Q’10.
– Survey respondents expect to see net bill redemption of $17.5
billion in the first quarter, slightly greater than the $15.9 billion
redeemed in the fourth quarter of 2010. The wide variance in responses
received show there was no consensus on expectations for net bill
issuance.
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