Here's what the movers and shakers of the financial industry think for NFP
As usual we bring you the round up courtesy of Efx news. Check them out here
Goldman Sachs: Our expectation for solid jobs growth (230k), unemployment rate (5.4%). With lift-off approaching and market pricing at the dovish end of the spectrum, we think this is a good time tactically to re-establish Dollar longs...Ahead of Friday, our favorite expression of Dollar strength is versus the Euro and then the Yen.
BNP Paribas: Our economists expect a strong April employment report in the US, with our economists forecasting a 275k increase in non-farm payrolls. The team look for the unemployment rate to hold at the 5.5% cycle lows and for solid average hourly earnings growth of 0.2% m/m. The combination should be reassuring for USD bulls as it would put employment conditions back in the "continued improvement" category required for Fed tightening to commence later this year. However, tactical trading of this month's report is complicated by the fragility of global bond markets. A strong report, while likely to be broadly USD supportive over time, could aggravate recent stress in the eurozone long-end, putting more pressure on QE macro trades and contributing to renewed short-term upside pressure on the EUR. For this reason, USDJPY is probably preferable for tactical long USD positions heading into the release.
Morgan Stanley: Payroll expectations have come down over recent days, opening scope for a positive surprise. Our economists expect 230k. While employment provides guidance concerning the strength of the US economy, we think the debate could soon shift to the remaining output gap. The growth potential of the economy has come down, with various factors such as demographics, technology progress and balance sheet restrictions hampering business investment kicking in. The labour market participation rate has declined steadily and, provided this trend remains in place, it will only require moderate 100k pm NFP increases to see the unemployment rate dropping from 5.5% to 4.5% by end-2016. Hence, the unemployment and wage compensation rate should become more influential, steering US rate expectations and implicitly USD. The consensus expects the unemployment rate to drop to 5.4% and the hourly wage rate to increase by 2.3%Y
Credit Suisse: We expect a partial rebound in payrolls following the disappointing +126K March print, although our +180K forecast would still fall short of the three-month moving average of +197K, and would be well below the six-month average of +254K (consensus: 230K). While payroll growth has cooled somewhat, job gains are still well ahead of what it takes to lower the unemployment rate over time; we therefore look for a 0.1pp decline to 5.4% (in line with consensus). We project a 0.2% rise in average hourly earnings (in line with consensus), which would leave the year-on-year rate at 2.3%, at the top of the last few years' range.
Nomura: we expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to announce on Friday, 8 May, that a net new 270k jobs were added to US nonfarm payrolls in April...Based on the decline in the insured unemployment between the household survey weeks in April and March, and our expectation for better job growth in April, we forecast that the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.4% from 5.5%.
UBS: For April payrolls, UBS expects a 265k rise-a rebound to a level well above March's 126k. The trend in payrolls is certainly strong enough to continue to bring down the unemployment rate. UBS forecasts a 0.1 point decline to 5.40% in April.
Deutsche Bank: We currently project a 225k nonfarm payroll gain for the month, compared to 126k in March. The unemployment rate is expected to decline a tenth to 5.4%. However, the risk may be that it falls even further given the fact that the insured rate of unemployment, a series within the weekly jobless claims report that is highly correlated with the unemployment rate, has averaged 1.7% over the past four weeks-the lowest level in nearly 15 years.
Citi: Payrolls now in the spotlight with investors looking for 228k, central range 210 - 250K. Market will also be attentive to unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Strength in these latter components could have a particularly powerful impact in supporting USD. However, questions on the degree to which payrolls data can drive a shift in trend are likely to remain awaiting a broader pick-up in US data flow.
ING: It is not often we go into a payrolls release with even a vague sense of conviction in our forecast. But the dataflow this month has been unusually consistent with our 180k forecast. Our forecast this month derives from the expectation that the strength of the bounce back after the recent soft-patch has been underwhelming, and is in any case likely to take longer to filter through to the jobs market, which lags the rest of the economy. We do see scope for the numbers to come in stronger than last month, as weather did seem to play a role in the March weakness. But we don't believe that the other labour data since then have told a particularly strong story
RBS: Our economists anticipate that US employers added 235K jobs in April after a just 126K increase in payrolls in March. Along with the rebound in headline payrolls, we expect another solid pickup in average hourly earnings, boosting the y/y average hourly earnings growth rate from 2.1% to 2.3% which, while still below levels the Fed considers normal, would be the strongest since 2009. We expect an edge down in the unemployment rate from 5.5% to a new recovery low of 5.4%. With the bar for outperformance likely lower, we expect the USD will rally on the back of a solid, but not blockbuster, employment report
BofA Merrill: We forecast nonfarm payrolls to increase 235,000 in April, revealing an improving trend from the past few months. This would cause the three-month average to increase to 208,000 and the six month to 263,000. Netting out a 5,000 increase in government jobs, we expect private payrolls to increase 230,000. Among the components, we look for a pick-up in job growth in the manufacturing sector given the modest improvement in the regional manufacturing surveys. We also look for leisure and hospitality jobs to improve after the notable slowdown in March. However, on the downside, the mining sector will continue to shed jobs given the sting from lower oil prices. This payroll report is a five-weeker, which means there are five weeks between the release of this report and the previous. The BLS controls for this reporting difference so it should not lead to an upward bias to the payroll print. The unemployment rate is likely to slip to 5.4% from 5.5%. Household jobs were particularly sluggish the past two months, suggesting scope for a rebound. Of course, there is always a possibility of a change in the labor force participation rate which can skew the monthly unemployment rate. As always, attention will be on the wage data. We are forecasting a 0.2% mom increase in average hourly earnings, which would translate to a 2.3% yoy gain. If we get a "strong" 0.2% increase, we can see the yoy rate head up to 2.4%. This would be consistent with the signal from the employment cost index, which rebounded to 2.6% yoy in 1Q. The data are slowly starting to show what the surveys and anecdotes have been suggesting - the tightening in the labor market is resulting in modest wage growth.
Barclays: We are looking for a 250k headline print, significantly above the consensus forecast of 230k. Furthermore, we expect the tightening in labor markets to continue with the unemployment rate declining to 5.4% (c.f. 5.4%) and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m (c.f. 0.2% m/m).
CIBC: The 187K gain we expect for April may be below consensus expectations, but it would be plenty to see the unemployment rate dip further to 5.4%, unless we have a large recovery in participation. Improvements in the US labour market from here will show up more in further declines in the wider US unemployment measure (which includes marginally attached and involuntary part-timers)...Look for signs of labour market strength to show up more in wage data going forwards, and the year-over-year rate of hourly earnings could well break higher than its recent 1.8- 2.2% range.
Westpac: The March nonfarm payrolls gain of just 126k was close to half the consensus estimate. While partly the result of weather and volatility in leisure & hospitality job growth, additional elements of the report point to a weakening underlying trend. If sustained, this is a trend that could give cause to delay the timing and scale of rate hikes... Investment and jobs go hand in hand; we expect a second consecutive sub 200k payrolls gain in April (180k).
Credit Agricole: We look for a pickup in nonfarm payroll growth (+190K) and a stable unemployment rate of 5.5% in April.
Danske: We expect a rebound in job growth in April with non-farm payrolls up 215,000, which is slightly below consensus. This would be a significantly higher pace of job creation than in March, when jobs growth was a modest 126,000. We expect employment in the manufacturing sector to decline once again in April as the sector continues to struggle with a stronger US dollar, while we look for a rebound in service and construction employment. We estimate that the unemployment rate held steady at 5.5%. We continue to expect the Fed's long-term neutral rate of 5.0-5.2% to be reached in H2 this year.
Santander. The market is already pricing a bit of a lower print so the risk might be in a good number. Anything above 200k plus a decent (positive) earnings will be good for the USD.
Commerzbank: We expect payrolls growth to come in much stronger again in April. At 180,000 (consensus 223,000), it is unlikely to match last year's speed entirely though. After all, the recent minor soft patch in the economy is unlikely to leave the labour market unaffected. However, this should still be sufficient to drive down the rate of unemployment by one tenth to 5.4%, in line with the trend of the past 12 months (consensus 5.4%).
SEB: After the major bond market sell-off, markets would not appreciate strong US employment report.However, weak data would lift concerns of the economy even more. Conclusions: 1. Our forecast is mediocre/good data with 200k new jobs, unemployment at 5.4% and hourly earnings at 0.2%; 2. Fed's Yellen has softened the importance of wage growth for a first rate hike; 3. Previous chairman, Bernanke, indicated that job data is a better measure of the economy than the GDP growth due to changes in productivity.
SocGen:It's not clear that the recent data should really drag the NFP forecast lower, so we look for stronger than expected data and observe that the market conviction in the 'soft data' theme now means there will be a much bigger euro reaction to weak European data, particularly in CEE. And there's a much deeper pool of supply to buy Treasuries into weakness once the current dust settles.