I posted up previews of the inflation data due from Australia today, coming up at 0030 GMT
- Australian Q4 inflation data due today - MOAR preview
- Australian Q4 inflation data due today - previews
- 2 bank previews here
- Westpac on the degree of risk to their Australian inflation forecast
- We just had the NZ Q4 CPI data, Australia's is due next week - what are the implications?
- CBA: Tame inflation outlook to remain
Also due is, at the same time, is Private Sector Credit. It'd take something huge from the credit data to move the currency today, the focus will be on the inflation data.
The NZ inflation data was last week, a lot softer than expected and the immediate impact wa s lower NZD. And then that impact followed though if subsequent hours and sessions. From the day itself (read from bottom bullet up):
- Response from ANZ to the NZ CPI miss - RBNZ on hold until the middle of 2019
- We just had the NZ Q4 CPI data, Australia's is due next week - what are the implications?
- NZD after the inflation data ... No soup for you!
- NZ Q4 CPI: 0.1% q/q (expected 0.4%)
I'd expect a similar response from the AUD if the CPI comes in lower than expected. It'd raise doubts about the RBA considering rate hikes (this will not be any time soon though) and might even plant a seed of a rate cut (and ditto - this'd be no time soon). One thing to be aware of now is there is some built up of expectations for a lower inflation result today which might have prompted a few AUD shorts to establish.
If the CPI comes in stronger than expected the AUD will, conversely, trade up.
Of course, there are 3 different inflation measures published so be aware of the difference between headline and core measures and watch for differing results (that's that's my way of saying the data is complicated, K?)
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