US CPI data due at 12.30 GMT
It's pretty easy to sum up what the inflation data will be (y/y numbers);
- Good - Headline down but core holding or rising
- Bad - Headline down and a small miss on the core (1-2 points in both)
- Ugly - A sizeable drop in both the headline and core (3+ points in both)
What's expected?
- CPI -0.1% vs +0.2% in August y/y
- -0.2% vs -0.1% prior m/m
- Core 1.8% y/y unch
- +0.1% m/m unch
- Real weekly earnings were 0.7% m/m & 2.3% y/y in August (no forecasts)
Alongside that we have initial jobless claims and one of my favourite bellwethers for manufacturing from the Empire state
- Initial jobless exp at 270k vs 263k prior
- Oct Empire State exp -8.00 vs -14.67 prior
Focus will be on the inflation numbers but jobs may be a factor too if we see a big jump in claims