The quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP)is due today from the Reserve Bank of Australia at 0030 GMT

The Bank will change its policy of using forecasting 'ranges' and instead use central forecasts:

  • "ranges will be replaced by the central forecasts to the nearest quarter point"

(That was Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor, speaking recently.

The most recent forecasts issued by the Bank were in the August SoMP, the biggies:

GDP growth

  • December 2017: 2-3%
  • December 2018: 2.75-3.75%
  • December 2019: 3-4%

Underlying inflation

  • December 2017: 1.5-2.5%
  • December 2018: 1.5-2.5%
  • December 2019: 2-3%

Unemployment rate

  • December 2017: 5-6%
  • December 2018: 5-6%
  • December 2019: 5-6%

These ranges are what will be replaced by points.

Westpac have produced a forecast for what they think the ranges will be in today's Statement from the RBA:

GDP growth

  • December 2017: 2.75%
  • December 2018: 3.25%
  • December 2019: 3.5%

Underlying inflation

  • December 2017: 1.75%
  • December 2018: 2.0%
  • December 2019: 2.5%

Unemployment rate

  • December 2017: 5.5%
  • December 2018: 5.5%
  • December 2019: 5.5%

WPAC note:

  • our expectations are for unchanged forecasts (using mid-point for range) for 2018 and 2019
  • The only slight changes will be around the 2017 numbers where data releases since August have indicated that it will be necessary to revise up growth in 2017 to 2.75% but cut the inflation number to 1.75%

Westpac's own forecasts are not quite so rosy, they are not as sanguine as the RBA is on the Australian economy.

For the Australian dollar, WPAC concludes:

  • If our expectations for the RBA's inflation and growth forecasts are correct there will be no implications for markets.

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ps. previews of today's SoMP: