Am I the only one that finds the perfect tradeable tech picture AFTER the event? Sods law isn’t it, that when you look at one to trade it’s all messy and not clearly defined?
GBP/JPY is the perfect example.
GBP/JPY Weekly chart 20 11 2014
Looking at it on the daily chart you can see how big a role the 38.2 fib level played.
GBP/JPY Daily chart 20 11 2014
Being honest, I probably would have lost money trading the 38.2 fib first time around as it carried on through 169 and I would have had a stop just above there. Using it as support would have gained mucho pips until the break and you can see that it almost stopped on a dime in October for the bounce to the 50.0 fib. A short there would have got you around 300 pips.
Well, we know it’s futile spending our time looking at what we should have done instead of what we should do so moving on, where are we now?
The current level puts us into that zone of old weekly support and resistance around 185-186 in 2008. A break above there and we could be up for a run to at least 195 and then the Sep 2008 high at 197.50, before we look at the 61.8 fib. Look to the 50.0 fib to as the first biggish support level before the stronger 181 area.
Lots for the cross to do but if the UK picks up next year and the US keeps on trucking this pair will head for the stars.