Key events and releases for the week starting Dec 12th

The highlight will be the FOMC meeting/statement/press conference, but there area two other central bank meetings. What else will be eyed in the new trading week?

1. FOMC interest rate decision. Wednesday, December 14 at 2:00 PM ET/1900 GMT. It was a year ago that the Fed last hiked and all the cards have fallen in place for the "same time next year" hike. Traders will be looking to see if the Fed is buying into the Trump economy, OR will the Fed remain cautious. The last two years has seen the Fed enter the new year with positive expectations, only to have slow growth in Q1. Will they now temper their enthusiasm or will they buy into Trump and expect more tightenings in 2017.

2. BOE interest rate decision. Thursday, December 15 at 7 AM ET/ 1200 GMT. The BOE will also announce there interest rate decision with the expectations for no change. IN 2017, the market is only pricing in as 29% chance of a hike by the end of the year. The fall out from the Brexit has been less then feared....so far. That does not mean it will be fun and games as the UK moves toward initiating Article 50 and it's aftermath. As a result, the BOE will likely remain cautious in it's Monetary Policy Summary.

3. US Retail Sales. Wednesday, December 14 at 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. Just because the Fed is 100% expected to raise rates, does not mean that the data is not important. The Fed and markets will be monitoring the potential for future hikes. Retail Sales are expected to increase by 0.3% vs +0.8% last month. Ex Auto +0.4% (vs +0.8%). Ex Auto and Gas +0.4% vs +0.6%. Control group also +0.4% vs +0.8% last.

4. Australia Employment Change. Wednesday December 14 at 7:30 PM ET/Thursday December 15 (GMT and local) at 0030 GMT. The Australian employment change is expected to show a 17.6K increase vs. 9.8K last month. The unemployment rates is expected to remain unchange at 5.6%

5. SNB rate announcement and Monetary Policy Assessment and press conference. Thursday December 15th at 3:30 AM ET/0830GMT. The SNB is expected to keep rates unchanged but Gov. Jordan and the board will give the market their guidance on the economy, inflation, the currency and traders will look to read into the projections for the future.

Other key events:

  • UK CPI, Tuesday December 13 at 4:30 AM ET/0930 GMT. The expectations are for a rise to 1.1% from 0.9%
  • UK employment, Wednesday, December 14 at 4:30 AM ET/0930 GMT. Claimant count change is expected to be 6.2K vs 9.8K last month. Average earnings are estimated to come in at 2.3% (Unchanged). The Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.8%
  • UK Retail sales, Thursday, December 15 at 4:30 AM ET/0930GMT. The MoM estimate is expected to increase by 0.2%
  • US CPI, Thursday, December 14th at 8:30 AM ET/0930 GMT. Estimate +0.2% MOM, Core +0.2% est.