The US economy continues to surprise to the upside

Economic indicators are soaring

Just how good has the latest slate of economic indicators been?

The Citi US economic indicator surprise index is close to the best levels since 2012. It's an index that tracks if data has beaten the consensus estimate.

You wouldn't know it from the US dollar, which has struggled for months and is at cycle lows against the euro and pound.

Part of the story is that other economies -- including emerging markets -- have also surprised to the upside. Another part is that the market is reluctant to move until Powell tips his hat.

My guess is that Powell proves to be more in favor of 'normalization' than some expect. Just two rate hikes are priced in for the US this year. I believe that four is much more likely.