A well-known think tank recently published a report that downplays the odds of significant progress toward a “grand bargain” at the upcoming G20 meeting in Seoul. While the US and Europe are very much in the same camp, China is expected to hold out, and perhaps even slow the pace yuan appreciation after the summit concludes.

Look for baby steps, rather than a major leap toward a global rebalanced, they conclude.

The spike up to the 1.4030s was likely prompted by the release of this report, as it suggests a perpetuation of the status quo of intervention to buy dollars against yuan followed by diversification into other currencies like EUR…That rally is fading now…