Keep an eye on Iraq

Al-Sumaria reports that helicopters are evacuating injured American embassy staff from the rocket attack earlier today. One Kayusha rocket hit the dining hall and two reportedly landed in the vicinity.

There's a report getting a tiny bit of traction now citing 'local media' saying the US has informed Iraq there will be a military response. It doesn't sound credible to me and it's not on the real newswires so be careful with it.

If it is true and the US takes action, it puts the oil market in a very tough spot because you have a potential war (oil bullish) with a potential epidemic (oil bearish) and you can't quantify either of them. War vs pandemic is the ultimate oil market showdown.

However another commodity that would benefit from both negative outcomes would be gold. It's up $8 to $1580, giving back about $8 of early gains.