Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse strike out
There are no free rides at ForexLive. When you get the glory and when you're wrong you get the goat horns.
On Monday, we brought you a recommendation from Credit Suisse where they recommended GBP/JPY shorts as their trade of the week. They warned about soft data and said the only good reason to be long was that it was near the bottom of historically low ranges.
Turns out that was a good enough reason -- GBP/JPY gained 375 pips this week and is higher for the fourth consecutive day.
Morgan Stanley did no better with a recommendation to sell NZD/USD on a bounce towards 0.665, with a stop at 0.6780, and a target at .6120. This trade actually had a decent start as NZD/USD touched 0.6662 late Tuesday before falling back to 0.6595 -- so it was 55 pips in the money for a time. That's nowhere close to the 500 pip target but it was an opportunity to move the stop lower. For those who didn't, they were stopped out at 0.6780 today for a 130 pip loss.
The lesson? If you had a bad week, you're not alone. If you had a good week, you're smarter than the pair of well-paid analysts who dreamed these trades up.
As for me, I wrote about the March seasonals on Monday and they've been off to a great start. On Tuesday, I wrote about early signs of a cable bottom. Alas, I doubled down on a USD/JPY call on Wednesday but the pair languished in a sideways chop this week despite the positive risk tone.