Another surplus on the trade balance, the external sector doing OK

  • October trade balance, expected AUD +3bn, prior AUD 3.017bn
  • And October retail sales, expected +0.3% m/m, prior +0.2% (preview here)

Westpac preview the trade balance

Australia's trade account has been in surplus every month so far in 2018

  • For October, we expect the surplus to rise higher, to $3.5bn, the largest surplus since the end of 2016
  • Export earnings are up a forecast 2.2%, +$0.8bn. Key is a rebound in coal volumes from the supply disruptions of the past couple of months. Commodity prices were also higher in the month
  • The import bill is forecast to rise by around 1.0%, +$0.3bn. Volumes are expected to resume their uptrend, emerging from the softness of Q3, while prices are higher associated with rising global energy prices and a lower dollar (down 1.4% against the US dollar to 71¢ in October)