AUD looks to the price of iron ore as a critical input.
How much longer does the (respite?) rally in iron ore last is addressed by a local press piece published Tuesday, Australian Financial Review: Iron ore's incredible rebound could be short-lived (may be gated)
From the piece:
UBS -
- "It's being driven partly by restocking from the National Day holidays and so the question mark is how long that continues for"
- "Underlying demand is still not that strong, and we don't have conviction yet as to how long the current rally can endure."
Morgan Stanley -
- forecasting will average $US85 a tonne during the final quarter of 2021
- We believe iron ore can dip further into the fourth quarter of 2021 and first quarter of 2022, but expect a bounce by the second quarter, as China’s steel production curbs are lifted and infrastructure stimulus filters through
There is more at that link to the AFR above.