-May manufacturing output +1.2% m/m; -1.7% y/y
-May industrial production +1.0% m/m; -1.6% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – Manufacturing output rose sharply during May as
production was boosted by an extra working day, according to figures
released Tuesday by National Statistics.

While moving the usual late May Bank Holiday to June this year
provided an extra filip to output, historical precedence suggests we’ll
see a very sharp fall in June as two working days were lost that month
due to the Jubilee celebrations. This make gauging the underlying
strength in the sector very difficult.

Manufacturing output rose 1.2% on the month and was down 1.7% on
the year. This was significantly above the median for a rise of 0.1% on
the month as most economists seem to have not taken into account the
workday effect during the month. The annual fall of 1.7% was broadly in
line with a forecast 1.8% decline.

The wider measure of industrial production rose 1% on the month and
was down 1.6% on the year, well below the median for a 0.3% monthly drop
and decline of 2.1% on the year.

The situation this year is comparable to Jubilee events ten years
ago in 2002 when output in May that year was initially reported to have
risen 0.7% on the month, before plunging 5.3% in June and then
recovering with a 4.9% monthly jump in July.

Given the effect of the Jubilee this year and the impact of the
Olympics we’re likely to see a very erratic pattern of output this year
as well.

-London newsroom 4420 7862 7491 email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]