LONDON (MNI) — Non-seasonally adjusted construction output rose in
February but output seems likely to have fallen sharply on the quarter
which could hit Q1 GDP growth.
Construction output volumes rose 6.1% on the month in February,
after a 12.9% monthly decline January, and were down 4.6% on a year
earlier.
As the monthly data are non-seasonally adjusted and there is only
a short data series available for analysis it makes interpreting the
data difficult.
January is usually a weak month for construction and output
usually bounces back in February and March strongly. Still even if March
output bounces back a hefty 20% in March non-seasonally adjusted output
would be down 9.5% on the quarter in Q1. Seasonal adjustment will likely
boost this but it is difficult to know to what extent.
A back of the envelope guess suggests output on a seasonally
adjusted basis could be down around 3-4% in Q1 which would cut Q1 GDP
growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage point.
–London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]