LONDON (MNI) – The January GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose to
its highest level since last June, coming in at -29, up from -33 in
December.
The confidence readings are still exceptionally low by historic
standards, with the long run average in this series -8, but the January
outturn was 10 points above the GfK series’ all-time low of -39 which
was hit when the credit crunch was raging back in July 2008.
The January data showed consumers markedly more upbeat about the
economic outlook and more likely to make major purchases.
The January climate for major purchases score rose to -22 from -31
in December, and the general economic situation over the next 12 months
score was up at -33 from -41 in December.
The personal financial situation scores were little changed. The
score for personal finances over the past 12 months rose to -22 from
December’s -23, and over the next 12 months it rose to -9 from -10.
“The four point improvement in the Index this month is surprising
in light of the fall in GDP and possible slide back into recession (but)
… a few rays of light have started to reach long-suffering consumers,
including falling inflation and the recent reduction in energy prices,”
Nick Moon, Managing Director of GfK NOP Social Research, said.
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members have highlighted
the declining pressure on consumers as a result of falling inflation,
and despite the latest data showing a slight contraction in growth in
the fourth quarter the GfK data do show less widespread pessimism.
BOE Governor Mervyn King said in a speech on Jan 24 that “The fall
in inflation will relieve the squeeze on real income growth and with it
the pressure on consumer spending.”
The GfK/NOP survey was carried out between Jan 6 and Jan 15.
–London newsroom 44207 862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com
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