UK DATA: Jun Retail Sales +0.1% m/m; +1.6% y/y; median 1.1% m/m;2.4% y/y
-Jun Retail Sales ex fuel +0.3% m/m; 2.2% y/y; median +1% m/m; +2.4% y/y
————————————————————————
Headline retail sales were virtually unchanged on the month in
June, dampened by poor barbecue food sales as the UK saw the wettest
June since 1910. Strip out the poor weather and sales would have
risen during the month, as non-food sales rose firmly. While this may
point to underlying sales being stronger than the headline data suggest
other factors make gauging underlying strength in the sector
difficult. Moreover the fall in volumes over the quarter was the largest
for two years. Strength in non-food sales which rose 1.2% m/m may prove
to be a one-off and reversed next month as evidence suggests retailers
brought forward their usual summer sales from July. The price deflator
ex fuel fell to 0.6% from 1.3%, the lowest since November 2009.