UK DATA: Oct Manufacturing Plunge Ups Risk Of Q4 GDP Fall
–Oct manufacturing output -0.7% m/m; +0.3% y/y
–Oct industrial production -0.7% m/m; -1.7% y/y
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Manufacturing output plunged on the month in October making it more
likely that overall economic growth in Q4 will be negative. Output fell
0.7% m/m and was up 0.3% y/y well below the median forecast for -0.2%
m/m and +1.5% y/y. Barring a sharp bounceback in output in the next two
months, something survey evidence suggests won’t happen, output looks
set to fall q/q in Q4. The wider measure of industrial production also
fell by 0.7% m/m and was down 1.7% y/y, compared with the median for a
0.3% and 0.7% fall respectively. The Bank of England’s latest Inflation
Report forecast growth to flat-line over the next three quarters and
this latest data add weight to this view and point to a possible worse
outturn.