LONDON (MNI), May 5 – A raft of polls are likely to be published
for Thursdays newspapers, and only a couple of national polls were
released Wednesday. The ComRes poll showed no change, but the YouGov
poll for the Sun newspaper showed a fall in Liberal Democrat support,
with the votes going to Labour and other parties rather than the
Conservatives.

The daily YouGov poll conducted through May 4 put the Conservatives
on 35%, unchanged from the previous poll, Labour on 30%, up 2 percentage
points and Liberal Democrat on 24%, down 4.

On any of the uniform national swing models the national polls
continue to show the Conservatives well short of an overall majority.
Plugging in the YouGov figures into the BBC model shows Labour as the
largest party on 289 with the Conservatives trailing on 260.

Polls of marginal constituencies, anecdotal evidence, non UNS
models and betting odds, however, all suggest an outright Conservative
victory is still possible.

The odds on BetFair, for example, put a 52% chance on no party
winning an outright majority, a 46% chance on a Conservative win, with
the central projection showing Conservatives winning 321 parliamentary
seats, only 5 short of an overall majority.

Other betting agencies are showing a Conservative majority is only
slightly less likely than no overall majority.

The fivethirtyeight.com psephology site shows the Conservatives
just 18 short of an overall majority.

The widespread assumption is that the Conservatives will form the
next government if they fall only a little short of an overall
majority.

In comments in a BBC radio interview Thursday, Prime Minister
Gordon Brown argued against tactical voting to keep the Conservatives
out, urging supporters to vote Labour rather than Liberal Democrat in
seats where Labour has no realistic chance of winning.

The following tables show the most recent national polls.

!End ! !Media ! ! ! !Conservative!
!Date of! !Outlet ! ! !Liberal !Lead Vs !
!Survey !Pollster! !Labour!Conservative!Democrat!Labour !
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04-May YouGov Sun 30 35 24 5
03-May ComRes ITV 29 37 26 8
03-May YouGov Sun 28 35 28 7
03-May Opinium Express 28 33 27 5
02-May YouGov Sun 28 34 29 6
02-May ComRes ITV 29 37 26 8
02-May ICM Guardian 28 33 28 5
01-May ComRes S. Mirror 28 38 25 10
01-May BPIX S. Mail 27 34 30 7
01-May YouGov S. Times 27 35 28 8

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