Latest data released by ONS - 16 August 2018
- Prior -0.5%
- Retail sales +3.5% vs +2.9% y/y expected
- Prior +2.9%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.9% vs 0.0% m/m expected
- Prior -0.6%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +3.7% vs +2.8% y/y expected
- Prior +3.0%; revised to +2.9%
Beats across the board. Cable rising to 1.2720 from 1.2700 levels now. Looking at the details, the rise is due to the World Cup and better weather also contributing to further support for food sales. Apart from that, clothing sales were also boosted by the summer sale as extended discounting continues.
That was not what I expected definitely. But I stand by my conviction as per the wages report earlier in the week. A beat here isn't going to change the long-term picture of the UK economy. Wages are still stagnant and tepid, and consumers are not helped with the BOE hiking rates earlier this month in terms of their borrowings, and add to that continued uncertainty surrounding Brexit. It makes for a good conviction to continue to fade the rallies.
