–Data Collection Did Not Include Last Nine Days of Month
–Exceptionally Cold Weather Did Not Kick In Until Final Days Of Month
–Upward Revision To November Utilities Output Looks Near Inevitable

LONDON (MNI) – Analysts who had expected Thursday’s UK November
industrial production data to be boosted by high electricity and gas
supply due to the exceptionally cold weather at the end of the month
were disappointed, but it has now emerged the official data simply
missed the cold spell.

The Office for National Statistics data for November did not
contain actual figures for utility supply in the final days of the
month, missing the start of the UK’s prolonged cold spell. With National
Grid data showing energy consumption picked up as the public battled the
cold, National Statistics will have to play catch up and revise the
November data higher.

National Statistics takes its gas data from the Department of
Energy and Climate Change and the DECC “November” figures would have
been based, as usual, on average gas output for the month. Energy output
for the final days of the month is an estimate.

A National Statistics official said the data would be revised if
needed.

“The figures were produced according to our normal procedures and
if more up to date real data becomes available they will be revised in
due course,” the official said.

The November National Statistics data showed electricity, water and
gas supply in November was up just 0.3% on the month.

Philip Rush, UK economist at Nomura, pointed out in a research
note, that the 0.3% monthly utility output clashed with the “near real
time” electricity and gas demand data from, among others, the National
Grid.

He added in the note “we expect upward revisions to utilities
output and thus industrial production when the Department for Energy and
Climate Change update the ONS with its utilities data for December.”

An upward revision could also impact fourth quarter GDP data.

National Statistics “could assume a higher utilities output for the
fourth quarter than currently implied by the monthly data, pending
revisions later,” Rush said.

The extent of the revisions to utilities data could end up being
sizeable.

“An upcoming window for incorporating data revisions back to the
start of 2010 could see the ONS nearly double its estimate of annual
growth in utilities output,” Rush said.

The first estimate of Q4 GDP data comes out on the 25th of this
month, and it is a moot point whether that will prove too early for
National Statistics to factor in the higher utilities output.

–London newsroom: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

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