Latest data released by ONS - 19 December 2019
- Prior -0.1%; revised to 0.0%
- Retail sales +1.0% vs +2.1% y/y expected
- Prior +3.1%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.6% vs +0.4% m/m expected
- Prior -0.3%; revised to -0.1%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.8% vs +2.0% y/y expected
- Prior +2.7%
Those are some poor readings across the board but as highlighted earlier here, the report today does not capture the retail sales activity of Black Friday - which is a key driver of stronger retail sales towards the Christmas period.
The weaker year-on-year figure is a reflection of that as last November's data had included Black Friday retail sales activity, whereas this year's date falls outside the reporting period.
As such, for a better gauge of UK retail sales activity in Q4, you have to account for both the November and December readings - not just look at any which one on their own.
The pound is nudged a little lower with cable seen around 1.3090 from 1.3105 but the reaction is barely audible to be fair. It's all about the BOE today for the quid.
