LONDON (MNI) – Public Sector Net Borrowing came in bang-in-line
with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s March forecast but the OBR
stressed the data published Tuesday were provisional and wide open to
revision.
The OBR’s analysis suggests that receipts growth could be revised
higher resulting in better than initially reported public finances.
In a note the OBR said “Even though we now have outturn data for
all 12 months of the (2011-12) financial year, the initial estimate is
still very provisional and subject to substantial change: Some cash
receipts (such as for PAYE, NICs and VAT) received in the early part of
2012-13 relate to economic activity in 2011-12 and will be accrued back
to that year.”
Some analysts highlighted the weakness of receipts growth, but the
OBR’s analysis suggests this apparent softness could be lessened in the
revised data.
The March data PSNB-X (which excludes financial sector
interventions) rose to Stg18.174 billion in March, up from Stg17.951
billion in the same month a year earlier. The 2011-12 financial year
outturn came in at Stg125.974 billion, down from Stg136.841 billion in
2010/11, matching the OBR’s forecast of Stg126 billion made last month.
The Central Government Net Cash Requirement came in below the OBR’s
forecast, paving the way for the Debt Management Office to announce a
reduction in planned 2012-13 Gilt issuance, due to the 2011-12 overfund.
— London newsroom: 00 44 20 7862 7491; drobinson@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MFBBU$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]