Latest data released by ONS - 13 November 2019

  • Prior +0.1%
  • CPI +1.5% vs +1.6% y/y expected
  • Prior +1.7%
  • Core CPI +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y expected
  • Prior +1.7%

The annual headline figure is a little on the rough side as UK inflation now falls to a three-year low. However, the bright side is that the core reading is seen holding up.

Looking at the details, ONS notes that inflation is pushed down by lower energy prices and is only partially offset by rising clothing prices.

In the grand scheme of things, this may tilt the BOE to lean more towards rate cuts but until Brexit is sorted out, there is little conviction for the central bank to harp on this data point too much because Brexit can easily mess this up.

Some other details on the day as producer price and retail price figures are released:

  • PPI output -0.1% vs 0.0% m/m expected
  • PPI output +0.8% vs +0.9% y/y expected
  • PPI input -1.3% vs -1.0% m/m expected
  • PPI input -5.1% vs -4.6% y/y expected
  • RPI -0.2% vs -0.1% m/m expected
  • RPI +2.1% vs +2.2% y/y expected
  • September HPI +1.3% vs +1.1% y/y expected
  • Prior +1.3%