Latest data released by ONS - 18 November 2020

  • Prior +0.5%
  • Core CPI +1.5% vs +1.3% y/y expected
  • Prior +1.3%

Slight delay in the release by the source. The headline and core reading is a welcome development for the BOE as it alludes to price pressures not slowing down further to start Q4 at the very least.

ONS notes that clothing and food were among the largest contributors to the upwards push in the inflation rate from September to October, offset by a drop in recreation and culture as well as transport groups.

The data here shouldn't do much to change the overall narrative at the moment, as it just buys more flexibility for the BOE to act coy when it comes to the negative rates debate.

Some other details on the day as producer price and retail price figures are released:

  • PPI output 0.0% vs +0.1% m/m expected
  • PPI output -1.4% vs -0.7% y/y expected
  • PPI input +0.2% vs 0.0% m/m expected
  • PPI input -1.3% vs -2.6% y/y expected
  • RPI 0.0% vs -0.1% m/m expected
  • RPI +1.3% vs +1.2% y/y expected